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Finding the value behind Kyler Murray in Rookie award betting

Check out our value picks for the Offensive Rookie of the Year futures market.

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Kyler Murray is favorite in the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) betting and it’s easy to see why.

The number one draft pick is a running and passing threat and a guaranteed starter. The Cardinals could be at a turning point and Murray has an opportunity to take full credit.

The problem is even a winning year won’t guarantee him the title.

Just look at Andrew Luck (2012), Jameis Winston (2015) and Baker Mayfield (2018). They all went first in the draft and made an immediate impact on losing teams – but none was credited with offensive rookie of the year.

The Cardinals should improve on last year’s 3-13 record but their under/over for the regular season is just five wins, which suggests Murray’s odds in the OROY betting are far too short. In any event, we’re currently in August and no one wants to lock up their cash for four months for a +180 return.

Let’s dig out some value in the market…

Rookie quarterbacks

QBOROY oddsTeamDraft pos.Round
Kyler Murray+180Arizona Cardinals11
Dwayne Haskins+800Washington Redskins151
Daniel Jones+2500New York Giants61
Drew Lock+3300Denver Broncos422
Will Grier+5000Carolina Panthers1003

Unsurprisingly, the best place to find top rookie prospects is the top of the draft. The table above shows the top five quarterbacks drafted in 2019.

Daniel Jones, Will Grier and Drew Lock are not expected to start in the opening weeks of the season and could lack the opportunities to make a mark this year.

Dwayne Haskins is interesting. He competes with Case Keenum for the number one spot in Washington but there will be fan pressure to see him as a starter sooner rather than later.

The Redskins were riddled with injuries last year but they’re capable when healthy – QB Alex Smith actually had a winning record (6-4) before his season-ending injury.

Odds of +800 are on the skinny side for Haskins to shine as the best rookie when he’s not yet a guaranteed starter but he’s certainly a player in the market. 

Rookie running backs

RBsOROY oddsTeamDraft pos.Round
Josh Jacobs+1000Oakland Raiders241
Miles Sanders+1400Philadelphia Eagles532
David Montgomery+1600Chicago Bears733
Darrell Henderson+2000Los Angeles Rams703
Alexander Mattison+4000Minnesota Vikings1023
Damien Harris+4000New England Patriots873
Devin Singletary+5000Buffalo Bills743

The table above shows the top eight running backs drafted in 2019. We shouldn’t need to dig any deeper than eight as the last eight RBs to win OROY were drafted in the top five at their position.

In fact, we may not need to look beyond the top one, since Josh Jacobs is the only one on the list whose team have been clear he’s their RB1. The others may work their way up to top spot but from the outset they will have significant competition for touches.

Jacobs is a threat all over the field and has the X factor which will appeal to AP voters.

The only knock on Jacobs is the fact he shared the backfield with Damien Harris at Alabama, but there are two positive spins on that. First, if he hadn’t shared duties he might have gone even earlier in the draft and might be an even shorter price for OROY. Second, he arrives with fresh legs.

At odds of +1000 Jacobs looks the one to be with. He’s the standout on talent and he should get more opportunities than the others.

Rookie receivers

WRsOROY oddsTeamDraft pos.Round
Mecole Hardman+2500Kansas City Chiefs562
Marquise Brown+3300Baltimore Ravens251
N'Keal Harry+1800New England Patriots321
D. K. Metcalf+2500Seattle Seahawks642
Parris Campbell+2500Indianapolis Colts592
Deebo Samuel+5000San Francisco 49ers362
A. J. Brown+3300Tennessee Titans512
JJ Arcega-Whiteside+3300Philadelphia Eagles572
Andy Isabella+4000Arizona Cardinals622

The table above shows the top nine wide receivers drafted in 2019.

Again, the draft is a good guide in this category. The three receivers to take the award since 2000 were drafted third, fourth and sixth at their position.

Mecole Hardman, N’Keal Harry, D.K. Metcalf and Parris Campbell joined strong offenses with established, high-profile WR1s. They will all have top QBs passing to them but targets will be limited.

Deebo Samuel, however, could top the depth chart by week four and he looks pick of the receivers for OROY betting. He’s a speedy receiving, rushing and returning threat and, with Jimmy Garoppolo back in at QB, he could pick up some major yardage for the 49ers.

PICKS

Winners of this award require stand-out talent and enough opportunities to show it off. They also need the right support around them. Based on those factors two bets are recommended:

Running backs have a great record in OROY and the outstanding player in that group is Josh Jacobs (+1000).

Wide receivers win less frequently but Deebo Samuel looks worth an investment. He was the third receiver off the board and looks the one most likely to secure WR1 status and pick up some returning duties.

Josh Jacobs OROY: +1000

Deebo Samuel OROY: +5000

The odds shown in the tables are for guidance purposes only. They are the general odds available from a range of sources. Odds will vary between sportsbooks. PFBPro offers no guarantee these odds will be available at your sportsbook.