Patriots now red hot Super Bowl favorite
Antonio Brown’s move to the New England Patriots caused the biggest positive market move of the NFL season. The Patriots are now clear favorite in the Super Bowl betting lines at +500 (from +700).Embed from Getty Images
That’s a huge move for a single player transaction. It’s on a par with Andrew Luck’s retirement from the Indianapolis Colts, which caused their Super Bowl odds to drift from +1600 to +6600.
Every sportsbook in the US and Europe made similar cuts to the Super Bowl odds. The math implies the chance of Tom Brady lifting the Lombardi Trophy improved from 12.5% to 16.7%.
More amazing still is the list of key events which had little or no effect on the Patriots Super Bowl odds. They include Rob Gronkowski’s retirement, David Andrews getting put on IR and Josh Gordon’s unlikely return to the fold. After each of those the Patriots remained steady at +700.
Brown’s impact on the Patriots
Maybe the latest move is an overreaction to a huge news story. But there’s no doubt the receiving talent in New England is now among the best in the league.
In terms of receiving yards per game (since 2013, min. 35 games), the Patriots now have four of the top 15 receivers in the league. They are: Antonio Brown (2nd), Josh Gordon (5th), Demaryius Thomas (12th) and Julian Edelman (15th).
There’s obviously a chance that Brown’s off-the-field antics will harm the Patriots. However, agent Drew Rosenhaus insists Brown is excited to be a Patriot and he’s prepared and ready to ‘be like every other player on the team.’
The Oakland Raiders were 100-1 for the Super Bowl before releasing Brown and they can still be backed at those odds. They will look to rebuild without the drama that has blighted their preseason.
|Super Bowl betting|
|New England Patriots||+330|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+700|
|Los Angeles Rams||+900|
|New Orleans Saints||+1000|
|Green Bay Packers||+1400|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2000|
|San Francisco 49ers||+2800|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+7000|
|New York Jets||+10000|
|New York Giants||+30000|