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Antonio Brown causes biggest market move since Luck retirement

Patriots now red hot Super Bowl favorite

Antonio Brown’s move to the New England Patriots caused the biggest positive market move of the NFL season. The Patriots are now clear favorite in the Super Bowl betting lines at +500 (from +700).

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That’s a huge move for a single player transaction. It’s on a par with Andrew Luck’s retirement from the Indianapolis Colts, which caused their Super Bowl odds to drift from +1600 to +6600. 

Every sportsbook in the US and Europe made similar cuts to the Super Bowl odds. The math implies the chance of Tom Brady lifting the Lombardi Trophy improved from 12.5% to 16.7%.

More amazing still is the list of key events which had little or no effect on the Patriots Super Bowl odds. They include Rob Gronkowski’s retirement, David Andrews getting put on IR and Josh Gordon’s unlikely return to the fold. After each of those the Patriots remained steady at +700.

Brown’s impact on the Patriots

Maybe the latest move is an overreaction to a huge news story. But there’s no doubt the receiving talent in New England is now among the best in the league.

In terms of receiving yards per game (since 2013, min. 35 games), the Patriots now have four of the top 15 receivers in the league. They are: Antonio Brown (2nd), Josh Gordon (5th), Demaryius Thomas (12th) and Julian Edelman (15th). 

There’s obviously a chance that Brown’s off-the-field antics will harm the Patriots. However, agent Drew Rosenhaus insists Brown is excited to be a Patriot and he’s prepared and ready to ‘be like every other player on the team.’

The Oakland Raiders were 100-1 for the Super Bowl before releasing Brown and they can still be backed at those odds. They will look to rebuild without the drama that has blighted their preseason.

Super Bowl betting  
New England Patriots+330
Kansas City Chiefs+700
Los Angeles Rams+900
New Orleans Saints+1000
Philadelphia Eagles+1400
Green Bay Packers+1400
Dallas Cowboys+1400
Los Angeles Chargers+2000
Baltimore Ravens+2000
Chicago Bears+2200
Cleveland Browns+2500
Seattle Seahawks+2500
Minnesota Vikings+2800
Houston Texans+2800
Atlanta Falcons+2800
San Francisco 49ers+2800
Pittsburgh Steelers+3300
Indianapolis Colts+5000
Tennessee Titans+5000
Carolina Panthers+6600
Detroit Lions+6600
Buffalo Bills+6600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+7000
Jacksonville Jaguars+10000
New York Jets+10000
Denver Broncos+12500
Cincinnati Bengals+12500
Arizona Cardinals+12500
Oakland Raiders+20000
Washington Redskins+20000
New York Giants+30000
Miami Dolphins+100000