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Tom Brady’s free agency move crushes Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers now 14-1 from 50-1 for Super Bowl LV after quarterback transfer

Tom Brady‘s free agency move to Tampa Bay sent shockwaves through the Super Bowl odds markets for next season. The line on the Buccaneers lifting the Lombardi Trophy now ranks them among the top six teams in the league.

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The Super Bowl odds line went from 50-1 to 14-1 as the news broke. Conversely, the New England Patriots were eased to 16-1 from 14-1, with some sportsbooks favouring Brady’s new team over the Pats.

Six-time Super Bowl champ Brady turns 43 in August. But, while his arm may be getting weaker and his legs slower, his mind is clearly as sharp as ever after helping the Patriots to a 12-4 season. He passed for 4000 yards with 24 touchdowns.

Brady and Arians

His new boss Bruce Arians will be looking to make a big leap forward this season. The two-time NFL Coach of the Year took the Bucs to 7-9 in 2019, his first year as head coach. That was an improvement on the team’s previous two years at 5-11.

That 7-9 record looks all the better when you consider five of the nine defeats were by six points or less, including two in overtime. Throw Tom Brady into the mix and Arians could be about to work some magic.

Tampa Bay already has the weapons, with a hot young receiving corps including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard.

Will they win?

With a betting hat on you have to think the line move was an overreaction. It’s what happens when one of the biggest names in the NFL changes team – even if they are almost 43.

Arians and Brady are superb at what they do – individually – but they may take time to mesh together. Brady has been in the same system his whole career but Arians has his own way of doing things. Ultimately, that separation could prevent them getting to the Super Bowl.

Bill Belichick, meanwhile, is set for a season of rebuilding in New England. He has shown he can drop new quarterbacks into his system for the odd game, but he may not yet have a 16-game replacement fro Brady.

There’s plenty more trading to be done, though, and with Belichick anything is possible before Week 1.

Read our NFL betting basics.